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Yahoo’s Brain Drain Shows a Loss of Faith Inside the Company (nytimes.com)
151 points by scottfr on Jan 10, 2016 | hide | past | favorite | 142 comments



By the time the NYTimes runs this story, it's already over.

Internally, employees know well in advance when a company is headed downhill. When I was at LivingSocial, the best employees left at what appeared (externally) to be the peak of the company.

The trend was already apparent. Once you get to layoffs and press stories, your best employees have already gone. Two sayings that apply here:

1) If you're not growing, you're dying 2) People don't leave companies, they leave managers

Retention is all about opportunity: personal and organizational. A talented employee with many other opportunities must believe that those above them are beyond competent (providing room for personal growth) and that the company is trending in a direction to make vast organizational change. People, especially top talent, want to be a part of something larger than themselves.

When Marissa Mayer started, that bought Yahoo time. They had the appearance of organizational change. Once that honeymoon period ended, however, there isn't much to hold a great employee to Yahoo. At this point, if the best people are leaving, how do you recruit other A+ players? You can't.

People are the core of a company and Yahoo is many years down the line of rotting from the inside out.


> 2) People don't leave companies, they leave managers

I would love to hear others' thoughts on this statement. It sounds good, but is it real? Would you stay at a company in whose purpose you don't believe, if you liked your manager?


Yes and no, respectively.

Happy employees require 1) a mission they find internally compelling and 2) a management environment that they feel allows them to do meaningful work towards that mission.

1 is usually pretty fixed. If you sign on because you want to change finance, or help people find apartments, or whatever else, your emotional situation re: that topic will likely be pretty stable over ~years.

2 changes quickly and often. Projects that an employee feels are important get killed. Things that seem silly get prioritized. Accolades are distributed in ways that seem unfair, etc.

So, the parent's quote could be rewritten more clearly as:

People don't leave because they stop caring about a company's mission. They leave because they lose faith that the company infrastructure is capable of letting them contribute to/achieve that mission.

Enormously complex topic. 3 employees at a company may have 3 different slightly different takes on a company's mission at the start, and feel totally different about its trajectory down the line.

---

As for your 2nd point about staying under a manager you like at a company you don't care about, personally, I find myself incapable of doing it. I don't have to be doing the most impactful company premise in the world (soylent? watsi?) but I at least have to be working on problems I find highly interesting. I've left some companies whose people, culture, and processes I loved, because ultimately their problem space just didn't keep me up at night.

On the contrary, I can tolerate a much more hostile management environment when its offset by work so personally meaningful that I'd be doing it in my spare time even if I weren't an employee.


That's interesting, because my personal experience has been the polar opposite of that. It doesn't matter if I'm working on sending people to Mars (a problem that I'd find very interesting), if I can't get along with my manager any my co-workers, I'm out. On a more practical level, my manager is responsible for my performance reviews. If I don't have a rapport with him or her, then my time at the company is limited, regardless of how much I want to stay.


Yes.

I left a startup that eventually exited prior to my first year. vesting. The manager I had was one of those that was a smart guy, but didn't know his limits and between checking in broken code, aggressively (to the point of insult) insisting people work insane hours, and pushing for outsourcing more and more to a firm that was incompetent, I had enough. Being lead engineer and stuck with a launch that had no prep or IT people in place didn't help.

My favorite two stories were:

1) Disappearing on a weekend (well before launch) for my wife's birthday down to Big Sur. I had told people, but apparently it didn't register. I was at work Monday and lectured despite a 70 hour week the week before.

2) Getting yelled had for whiffing and underhand toss of a pen to a colleague (and friend) of mine during a meeting where we went up to write what we were doing on the whiteboard. Said manager thought I was annoyed and chewed me out. I pointed out, I had just pulled an all nighter and was fucking beat.

When I walked, I told the management team straight up he was the reason I was leaving.

A colleague/friend (he was the UI lead) had hoped to stick it out awhile, he lasted a month after I did.

I went through the frenzy of bubble one, had fun. I'm usually pretty darn dedicated, but that startup showed me my breaking point and I've avoided such situations since.


> I've avoided such situations since

That's probably the saddest part. You're obviously a hard worker, dedicated employee, sane manager. A sane start-up would benefit a lot from having you on board, you would get well-paid from it, and the economy would benefit from having employees who fit jobs. But now you probably have to be overly cautious and choose a more reasonable job.


I have explored a few other startups since then. But, the BS filter is in place when the pitch starts. Consulting or, my current role, where I get to work with startups is not quite the same but still interesting.


I have stayed at companies and on projects that I knew were "dying", or, at least, not doing so well because I had good management. On the other hand, I have left successful companies because my particular product group wasn't getting enough management support. People forget that companies like Yahoo, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, et. al. are huge. As an individual contributor, Marissa Meyer's policy shifts affect you in subtle and hard to diagnose ways, because they're filtered and mediated through a long chain of management before they get down to you. Your individual manager has a much greater impact on your day-to-day happiness than the CEO of the company.

That said, good programmers always have opportunities, and while good management can do a lot towards helping retention, if the company is dying, people will start to look elsewhere. After all, nobody wants to be in the lurch when the layoffs hit. It's always better to have another opportunity arranged, so that you can leave on your own terms, without having a gap on your resume.

I would say that I make a trade-off, balancing the benefits of staying where I am (social capital, rapport with my coworkers, etc.) with the potential benefits of moving elsewhere (quit-before-I'm-fired, opportunity to work on a better technology or a more interesting problem). When the benefits of staying become less than the benefits of switching, then I start looking. Individual management can do a lot to increase my propensity to stay where I'm currently at, but it's not an unlimited power. At some point, broader economic concerns swamp the benefit I get from staying with my current team.


To be clear, that isn't the assertion of that statement.

It says that (in general) people who do leave, leave because of bad management.

It does not say that people who stay, stay because of their managers.

Your statement may also be true or false, but it is independent of the original.


you seem to be the only one who got it right the opposite of something is not always true

you wouldnt stay in a company because it have clean bathrooms

but you will surely leave if it has dirty bathrooms

having a good manager should be the norm having a bad one, is not acceptable

easy


People are more likely to stay at a bad company if their manager is good, than vice versa.

A good manager shields team members from politics, drama and similar nonsense, and is not afraid to make personal sacrifices for the good of the team. They create an environment where each team member can thrive and grow professionally. That's why a lot of companies with bad reputation can still retain A+ talent (e.g. Amazon).

That said, people tend to have many different reasons for leaving a company. Maybe they're no longer learning at the rate they want, or they don't get paid enough, or they're simply worried about hurting their employability if they stay in one place for too long. It's impossible to generalize. But managers probably have the biggest impact on someone's decision to leave.


> It's impossible to generalize.

Agree. I worked with a manager who was kind of a dick at work, but really cool outside of work. After I left the company, he confessed he "had to play the part" so to speak. Turns out he hated it too and left shortly after I did.

Most people don't leave managers. They leave a crappy company culture that creates bad managers.


> Would you stay at a company in whose purpose you don't believe, if you liked your manager?

There are a couple of people on my current project whose company I enjoy and who have personal attributes that I'd like to foster in myself. I'm staying with it solely for that reason, the business model it uses was dead in the water two years ago and it's in the die-off period - the project itself is just making efficiency savings on something that's never going to be profitable again.

I'd choose to do so again, it's never made life bad for me to choose to share closer company with the people I respect - and when the time to move jobs has come up, a few months ahead of the crash, there have always been plenty of friends in other companies that would put in a good word.

What has been a bad call for me has been to stay in bad company, for the chance to work on something 'important' while management has been incompetent or peers have been markedly hostile. That's contributed to some of the lowest times of my life.


I think it is. It's easy to be supremely objective here on HN, but belief is malleable. I mean, if you knew what was going to happen, you'd make a fortune on the stock market.

I think people are pretty good about differentiating success for their companies vs. personal success (salary, learning, building a network, etc).


It's more like you'd quit a company you like if your manager is making your day-to-day life miserable (ish).

A good mansger miiight be able to retain you longer under bad external conditions because they shield you from them.


No, I've left companies where I had a great manager, but could tell from the company culture that I would not be able to attain my professional goals or reach the salary I was looking for.


My personal experience has been the exact opposite. I left my first company not because of my Manager. It was because the company had started showing signs of decline. I had been working with my manager for more than four years and he was a real gem. But even he couldn't do anything about the nonsense that was being churned out from the top levels of the company. His best team members left long before he did, and it was not his fault.


I thought my manager was great, and I still left a troubled company.

Granted, our 1:1s were like "Yeah, so what other horrible thing happened to you this week and when are you leaving?" They were also looking for an exit, and left a few months later.


The quote isn't really meant to imply your direct manager specifically.

It can easily be your managers manager, a vp/director or even upper management as a whole.

The last of which sounds like the case in your situation.


Would you join a company in whose purpose you don't believe?

I find it rare for people to take an opportunity with a company they don't feel good about, regardless of how much they might like the interviewing manager. IMO those who do accept such an offer are just resume surfing, and weren't going to stick around regardless.


Millions of people are in this bucket - they are doing it to pay the rent.


    Would you join a company in whose purpose you don't believe?
Absolutely. Money is money, a job's a job, and honestly, day to day software engineering is pretty boring, whether you're working on ISO-9000 compliance or a Mars Rover. Yeah, writing code for a more "sexy" project makes for a better story over drinks at a cocktail party, but that in no way makes up for the fact that you're miserable for 8+ hours a day, 5+ days a week.


There are purposes that one doesn't believe in. Like I don't give a shit about ride sharing. Then there are places that I don't feel good about such as malware creators. So those are two separate things. BTW, engineers should job hop every 6-18 months as engineers have done for decades every year since engineering was a thing.


Related:

http://steveblank.com/2009/12/21/the-elves-leave-middle-eart...

I love this analogy and the super nerd Tolkien reference of it's name to not link to it.


Just scanning across headlines of the last few days:

- San Francisco commercial real estate at record highs, passing NYC in price per square foot (which last happened just before things imploded last time around)

- Multiple SF area tech companies running rounds of layoffs

- VC funding took a nose dive last quarter

- Quite a few unicorns or near unicorns having their valuation tank post-IPO, having a difficult fundraising round or seeing their valuations slashed on private markets

One can debate if the Valley is in a full blown bubble, but seems increasingly obvious at a minimum there's a significant cooling off on the horizon.


I think we can all agree that this year is going to be pretty ugly, both in the tech industry and the broader economy. With the Fed planning to hike interest rates repeatedly, the Chinese economy in a tailspin, and the VC bubble rapidly deflating, there seems to be little doubt that winter is coming. And it's not all the VCs and other pundits on Twitter saying everything's going to be OK that are going to suffer as a result.

None of the problems that we caught just a glimpse of during the financial crisis were really fixed - they were just patched over with some spit and duct tape. The interest on that technical debt will have to be paid sooner or later.


Do you think this will seriously affect job opportunities for devs? I'm an almost-grad who switched from electrical engineering because the jobs were abysmal, and the bad luck seems to be following me :-)


I won't play oracle here. But I would like to point out that there are a number of skill sets you yourself can develop over the next year to make you more resilient to hiring trends (and depressions).

Networking. Sales. Domain knowledge.

As an undergrad myself, I feel most of my peers expect a job to be given to them as soon as they graduate. For some this will be true, for many it will not. I feel that this is a terrible mindset and will cause a lot of pain for people in our age group.

So networking, as in know people, know companies, you don't have to be an extreme extrovert but put yourself out their and actively try to meet and build relationships with people in the industry.

Sales, as in selling yourself as the product. Practice interviews, enunciation, phone conversations, whatever you have to do. If you come across as an A-player/personality you are much more likely to be hired.

Domain knowledge, get a basic understanding of what's in use today, what probably will be in use tomorrow, and build an expertise in it. It requires a lot of time but it will clearly distinguish you from those who don't bother doing so. While many companies prioritize hires that can learn quickly, don't forget the very real business need of someone who can jump in and run with the team immediately. If you have this there will always be a place for you at some company, you would only need to find one with a real immediate need, then, "oh hey I can do that for you"..


Networking seems to be the hardest for me and I imagine others as well. I've been out of college for two years now and I have no idea how to meet new people.


Go to meet ups.

Go to conferences. If you're short on cash, go to where a conference is being held and hang out in the halls chatting people up. Maybe security will kick you out, maybe they won't. Maybe they aren't even checking who is going into the BOF sessions at night.

Go that one year old's birthday party you were invited to being thrown by that older coworker of yours that you kinda know. Maybe you'll meet an interesting person who turns out to be your boss in ten years.

There's lots of ways to meet people, it's just not going to get thrown on your lap anymore. You gotta go out and find it.


Bottom line is to put yourself out there. It's a small statement with a broad meaning. You'll find yourself thinking at the end of the night "That was a good call going out rather then staying at home" more often then not.


Don't worry about it or listen to the HN doom-sayers, they like to exaggerate and self-aggrandize. Broadly -- software, the web, social products, automation, or advertising aren't going anywhere in the next two years. These are all driven by development and require developers. High competition markets might slow leading to not getting a massive out of school offer. But you'll get offers if you're looking.

Honestly you're better off starting your career at a middle point or low point in the market rather than a high point. You'll be better calibrated for the ups and downs and you are far more resilient and flexible.

I graduated in 2009, when there were no jobs and it was awful. I slowly climbed my way to Google and on into an exciting future.


You really have no idea. 2009 was mild for SV.

The dotcom bust per-capita was worse than the autoindustry layoffs in the 80s. I lived through it. It was very hard, and some people I know were out of jobs for 2 years. Our company had half a dozen layoffs in 12 months and we shrank by 50%. If 2016 is half of what 2001 was, then most new grads won't get jobs.


I was lucky enough to be in a strong company for the 2000 bust but I remember we'd get at least 50 very qualified applications for every open position, plus another stack of far more desperate and less qualified people. It didn't really start to get better until 2003-2004.

2008-2009 wasn't anywhere near as bad for the overall tech job market.


No I do have an idea, and I think you'd be better off not making silly assumptions. I was unemployed and living in my car for 18 months in SV, because I wasn't yet tech-trained in 2009. If you were an engineer casting your cold eye on the world, I'm sure you turned your nose up at the millions of us who were't in tech then. Or maybe we just didn't count us as real people.


Your past experiences are truly irrelevant to the point you made and what I was responding to. And your ad hominem attacks are misplaced as well.

You have admitted you didn't go through the 2001 bust, so you, by definition, have no idea what it was like. Dismissing talk of 2016 being a bad year as doom-saying, exaggerating or self-aggrandizing clearly shows you have no idea how bad it can get for the industry as a whole. I don't care if you were unemployed and living in a car for 18 months in 2009/2010, because it's irrelevant to the point. There are plenty of people unemployed and living in cars even during the dotcom boom. But 2009/2010 weren't anything compared to the depths of the dotcom bust.


The user you're replying to was too aggressive in their comment, but you're doing that as well. Please just be nice when commenting here.


No, I wasn't too aggressive at all. I used very unaggressive words, on purpose in fact. What's worse than two people disagreeing is some nanny police or censorship mod who is overly policing every single word used. Please don't turn HN into that kind of forum.


It sounds like I misread you.


> Honestly you're better off starting your career at a middle point or low point in the market rather than a high point.

I don't think this is true. There's one study that found that students who graduate into a recession have worse earnings even long after the recession has ended: http://www.nber.org/digest/nov06/w12159.html

Eventually the effect wears off, but there's no evidence of a long-term benefit to graduating into a bad economy.


I'm probably bias since most of my joy has come from recovering from such a low point. There is almost anywhere to go from the bottom -- the top can leave you with long periods missing better days.


That's easy for you to say now that you're one of the Google bourgeoisie, financially protected and coddled by its search monopoly. The vast majority of developers will never be so fortunate.


Maybe... but my recovery started far before Google. There will be downturns, but there will be work. You might not get a new yacht, but you'll be able to feed your family.


I'm a software engineer that's lived through the dotcom crash and the great recession. I can tell you the dotcom crash was much more devastating for the tech community since we were at the center of it. There will always be a demand for software engineers, just keep in mind though that this demand is cyclical and during down years you have less leverage in salary negotiations and perks on the job tend to be taken away. If you are a good developer though you'll have little to worry about.


I worked for Electronic Arts during the dot com crash, and EA's value was even or increasing through that peroid. Why? Because they made an actual product, with their own money.


Also, hopefully as wel paid devs, people have a good savings buffer and no debt.


except if they bought a $1M house in SV


or worse yet, a $1M condo in SOMA.


I suppose that depends on your definition of "seriously".

There is a general cooling off, not a collapse. There aren't many companies going under entirely, which is distinctly unlike the first dotcom bubble where after the pop the ground was littered with the corpses of companies.

IMO what we're likely to see is a slowdown in early-stage startup hiring. Series-A and B funding is already harder to come by, and so execs will be more conservative about burn rate, including on payroll. Unicorns will continue to hire aggressively, but their equity will look worse and worse as their valuations get cut or they get murdered in the aftermath of their own IPO.

I think we will continue to see major unicorns have their valuations slashed, and we will continue to see tech stocks struggle in the public markets. But this will impact employee compensation more than it will impact overall demand for new hires. What this probably will mean is that offers from unicorns will be less attractive next to offers from BigTechCo, but ultimately we're still talking about offers in the top 10% of the entire USA, so it's hardly a cause for panic.

And of course the juggernauts of AmaGooFaceSoft and co. will continue to hire like crazy.

So yeah, the job market will get a bit softer, so you might be facing tougher competition, but it's not exactly doom and gloom.

It's certainly still a better outlook than what you were facing in electrical engineering.


I'm based in Australia, only half considering making the move to the US if I get an offer from the big 5. I guess I'm only worried if this would have an affect on the amount of positions available from mid sized companies (I've filled my quota of startup experience through internships).


The fact that you know about this problem already puts you far ahead of all the people who are still unaware. The best option (if you're not a senior) is to do a summer internship, which leads to a full-time offer. The next best is to get interviews through personal referrals. If all else fails, whiteboard like crazy and do your homework on the companies you're applying to, which will be a lot (hundreds).


I just assumed most devs would be worried about the potential affects of the bubble. Currently typing this from my summer intership, so your comment has given me so hope, thank you!


Regarding the ee jobs, I've seen quite a few of them exported overseas over the years to places like Taiwan and China. Usually the software side is considered "the secret sauce" and kept close to HQ. I've seen more than my share of experienced ee folks telling me they wished they chose software as the focus. But it is always hard to predict in the game of musical chairs what the next winner or loser will be. You try to stay a broad focus as a problem solver and learn to adapt.


I'm an electrical engineer and I don't think the job market is that bad. Not as good as software, but better than other engineering disciplines.


Switched from EE since jobs were abysmal; you mean the lack of jobs? But hey, we need more STEM!


Well going in to university the EE job opportunities were strong, but they've steadily gotten worse over the years in the US, and Australian power companies have had massive layoffs, reducing grad intake.


I don't get it. The Fed is raising rates because the economy is recovering.


The Fed has two mandates -- its "dual mandate":

1. Control inflation.

2. Manage unemployment.

They are, unfortunately, directly at odds. Fighting inflation tanks the economy (that's what Paul Volker did in the late 1970s, to tackle "stagflation", and Jimmy Carter's 2nd term hopes), and promoting employment tends to hot up inflation.

Over the past 8 years, the Fed (and other central bankers) have dumped unholy amounts of liquidity into the global economy. That is, they've been "printing money", except that the Fed doesn't actually print money, it simply wills it into existence. It's done this after reducing its own lending rates (the prime rate) to effectively zero wasn't sufficiently stimulating the economy.

It's slightly more complex than that: the Fed distributes that money by buying "assets" from major banks -- it's an auction process, but the goal of the Fed isn't to get valuable assets[1], only to manage how that money's introduced to the economy and keep tabs on its value by way of inflation, as I understand it.

For whatever the reasons, inflation hasn't actually been a problem, though the reasons why are elusive, and several alternatives have been suggested:

1. The money's gone into financial instruments, including stocks and real estate. The rise in major stock market indices and the Fed's balance sheet (its money supply injections) pretty much exactly track one another.

2. It's gone into offshore tax havens. Last numbers I've seen are about $7 trillion from the US, and $25-30 trillion globally, from various sources. The ICIJ and The Guardian have run a multi-year expose on off-shore investment havens, and other financial sources have reported on this.

3. Chasing other investments. Silicon Valley VC money comes from somewhere, and much of it chases start-ups whose ultimate valuation is either advertising potential, or buy-it-to-kill-the-threat-to-us (WhatsApp's purchase by Facebook). Advertising's terrifying because a tremendous amount of it is financial services -- about 40% in "FIRE" industries: finance, insurance, and real estate. Pull the plug on easy money, and all three of those tailspin.

Which gets us to why fighting inflation is seen as such a bad thing. Usually the argument given is "inflation hurts those with fixed incomes", by which most people think of the elderly on social security or pensions. But we've learned how to fix that: you index those systems to inflation, hence SSI's COLA adjustment -- the cost-of-living factor that boosts Social Security payments. Who really get hurt by inflation are those who are holding dollar-denominated assets. Lenders.

That's banks, and holders of bonds (debt), which aren't themselves inflation adjusted. If you've got a home mortgage, inflation is your best friend, because it reduces the amount of your debt (in real terms) while your income increases. Banks, on the other hand, hate that, because their assets (your mortgage) falls in value.

So: the Fed is raising rates to stem inflation fears, even though inflation's been fairly much a non-player. Probably because banks and other lenders / bondholders are getting nervous. And to give itself more maneuvering room.

There's a whole bunch more in this, such as what money "really" is (in a functional / role sense, not the boring old fiat-vs-gold-backed debate), what, whether, why, and how economic growth is, can be extended, is justified, and is based on, and whether or not inflation is an unavoidable element of a collapsing economic system. On that last, the fate of the (specie-based) Roman denarius is quite interesting.

But stay tuned. Things might get interesting.

________________________________

Notes:

1. Told to me directly by a regional Fed branch president in a public Q&A.


This is a pretty thoughtful response. I'm not confident enough to really debate the situation today, but it seems like the fed's goal of controlling unemployment has more or less run its course. Unemployment is almost at the lowest since the 2000's. But if it follows some predictions that it will bottom out in 2016, will the fed go back to lowering interest rates?


As many, including the Fed's Janet Yellin, have noted, while unemployment numbers are down, wages haven't risen. That's an indication of net economic vitality, equality, and negotiating power. There's also the continuing debate over just what unemployment measures, and alternate indicators including broader measures of unemployment, or workplace participation rates.

Declaring victory and going home may not match the battlefield status.


The Fed mostly buys government bonds, but also corporate bonds. All their profits are donated to the Treasury, so yes they have no incentive to chase returns. The reason printing hasn't lead to inflation is well known and understood. Inflation is the product of money supply and velocity and velocity was dropping as fast as supply was increasing.


The assets / paper that the Fed were buying in QE2 was pretty much anything banks wanted to throw at them. Though again, the auction element basically meant that less-utterly-grotty-stuff won out over the truly utterly grotty stuff, again, if I'm getting my story straight.

Inflation has to do with money chasing goods. All you've said is that "money wasn't chasing goods". Which gets us to two further questions:

1. Why wasn't that money chasing goods (or real, economically productive, investment opportunitys, by which I specifically exclude financial derivatives or simply "buying" tax sheltering).

2. What is that money chasing?

As I understand, the answers don't do much to make the situation any less bad.


Definitely a bubble, but this time, the VCs and private equity are the losers, because the "unicorns" haven't gone public. Not as bad as last time, because this time, most of the startups have at least enough revenue to pay their running expenses.


Startup employees which took a pay cut in exchange for equity are going to be the biggest losers. At least VCs and private equity have some level of protection against a decline in valuation from their preferred shares/liquidation preferences. It won't protect them against bankruptcy, but it is a lot better than nothing.

Employee's generally don't have that type of protection, and the liquidation preferences also decrease the value of the common shares after a down round. So even with a relatively modest decline in overall valuations, a lot of employees are going to end up with worthless options/shares after a down round.


Hopefully that will be a good lesson that will hit the next group of young and bright eyed developers.

It's not as if equity is necessarily bad, but unless you are a founder, you have ZERO control over what is going to happen to your equity. If the plan is not to exit after just a few years, you could be stuck for a long time, if just because without an IPO, you won't even be able to keep your equity if you leave, even if it's just because you can't pay the taxes.

I think that educating recent graduates about what are the realistic outcomes of betting on equity. For every early google employee, there are thousands of people whose equity was worth nothing. Even options in big companies can be worth nothing, if they were handed to you at very high prices.

When people learn the real risks, we'll see employees getting either a whole lot more equity, or salaries will go up. Either way, good for the industry.


The VC bubble is already popping and it's going to affect this year but I don't think it will have as much of an impact on the economy as the Chinese stock market collapsing to more realistic valuations.

Let's also keep in mind that the world is becoming more automated, not less, so this isn't going to be last time we see bubble valuations in our lifetime.


Is the cooling off phase only in VC funded software companies in the SF area? Or also in Fintech, bio, med, etc? What about NY, London?

Also what happened with public companies that had their IPO just a few months before the Dot-com bubble in March 2000?

Are there good books about the Dot-com bubble?

What is the outlook for SaaS companies? If there are less VC funded startups, should they focus on enterprise sales?


It'd be nicer if the cooling down effect led to a plateauing of those record high rents, even if dropping is too much to hope for.


VC funding announced in first week of 2016 is significantly more then first week of 2015 as a counter argument


Everything you just mentioned, plus stuff like this[1] really make this seem like a bizarro replay of the 1920s. That does not bode well.

[1] http://fortune.com/2015/12/16/yahoo-holiday-party/


"Last March, Ms. Mayer told the staff at an all-hands meeting that the bloodletting was finally over. Shortly thereafter, she changed her mind and demanded more cuts." Of course there's a loss of faith in the CEO.

That's been a continuing problem with Meyer. She said Yahoo was getting back into search. (Yahoo resells Bing; Yahoo hasn't had its own search engine since 2008 or so.) That didn't happen. She said Yahoo was going into video. That was canceled. There were a bunch of acquisitions, many of which just disappeared. Nobody can figure out what Yahoo is really for any more.

The company minus Alibaba has negative market value. It's that bad.


>Nobody can figure out what Yahoo is really for any more.

This is the key to their problems. Companies need to be able to articulate very specifically: this is what we do and who we are. Everything else follows from there. Yahoo's answer to this is, "We're a media company" and no one knows what that means including Yahoo.


One does get the impression Yahoo's being driven by activist shareholders at this point. The flipflops don't look like the CEO wants to change strategy, but are the result of political battles in the boardroom. Because the stock is tanking, there's a lot of change in the boardroom and then you have sudden shifts in strategy.


That's a micromanaging board, and no CEO should put up with that because as the most public face of a company it'll make the CEO look far worse than "the board". But OK, she's getting paid a metric f ton of money so maybe she doesn't care how bad the boards' micromanaging makes her look.


The longer she can ride the gravy train the better for her.

So she probably will do whatever the board decides that week.

(The Board):"Let's have more cuts" (Her):"Ok". (The Board):"We should buy a startup" (Her):"Ok."

I can't believe she doesn't know or nobody told her the ship is sinking (or the gravy train is headed to a dead end). She knows it. But yeah as you said, at this point she is just playing the game of "let's see how long I can hang on here".

In the end she can point fingers to "the board", "internal naysayers", "it wasn't much that could be done", etc, etc. The board can point to her. Employees and customers will point to both and so on.


> The company minus Alibaba has negative market value. It's that bad.

Umm no. The stock has tax implications priced in.

YAHOO STOCK = ALIBABA + YAHOO + YAHOO_JAPAN - TAX_FOR_ALIBABA

All the breathless press about Yahoo core being zero works only if set TAX_FOR_ALIBABA = 0.

No way a company making billions of dollars can logically have negative market value.


From yesterday's article 'How to Value Yahoo’s Core Business' http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/10/business/dealbook/how-to-v...

With Yahoo exploring a separation of its core business, the world may soon know what the company — minus its lucrative stake in Alibaba — is worth.

As of Wednesday, that figure is a negative (yes, negative) $13 billion.

How can a company that has $4.5 billion in revenue and one billion users be worth less than zero?

Let’s walk through the numbers.

The value of Yahoo’s stake in Alibaba is $32.5 billion and its stake in Yahoo Japan is $8.6 billion. The company’s net cash — or cash minus debt — is $4.2 billion. All told, that is $45.3 billion.

But stock market investors are assigning a valuation of $32.5 billion, based on Wednesday’s trading. The news that Yahoo was halting a spinoff of its stake in Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce giant, choosing instead to explore a spinoff of Yahoo’s core Internet operations plus its stake in Yahoo Japan, sent shares lower, widening that gap.

On average, analysts value Yahoo’s core based on five times projected Ebitda – some a little higher, some a little lower. That yields a market capitalization of $4.6 billion if Yahoo were an independent company. Tack on the 35 percent stake in Yahoo Japan, worth about $8.6 billion, and you’ve got a $13.2 billion business that could be spun out.

If the transaction ultimately is taxed, the bill would be a lot smaller for the Yahoo core plus Yahoo Japan entity than the original plan to spin off its Alibaba stake. Assuming a 41 percent tax rate, as CRT did in Wednesday’s note, Yahoo would pay $5.4 billion in taxes, versus $13.3 billion in taxes if it spun out Alibaba – potential savings that amount to $8 billion. That’s an extra dollar back for each share outstanding. Yet, interestingly, the stock lost 45 cents a share Wednesday.


Yeah. NYT is not exactly intelligent when it comes to finance or anything technical. Not one mention of the mess that is happening in China moving prices up and down.

> Yahoo shares rise as board meets and considers sale of Web business

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yahoo-divestiture-shares-i...

The popular press makes it own narrative which may or may not be true.

If you want intelligent reporting in finance, stick to WSJ.


> No way a company making billions of dollars can logically have negative market value.

"Efficient Market" is only a hypothesis.


> "Efficient Market" is only a hypothesis.

What? That has nothing to do with it.

Why would you pay someone to take something off you? There is no way just owning a public company's stock can hurt an investor other than loosing them $. (no liability etc).

It is all about tax. Investors understand this.

We are just seeing a special case of this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conglomerate_discount


You pay someone to take something you own if the asset is a liability costing more than it's worth or if there is an agreed upon price, that's basically a kind of short sale. I was about to declare bankruptcy because I couldn't sell property that I couldn't use and cost me at least $1300 / mo and increasing with no expectation of the possibility of selling (and to protect my other personal assets). It would have cost me another $40k+ that I didn't think I could recover back in 7 years for various reasons not to mention the sheer opportunity costs.

For another tech company example, HP's physical assets on the books exceeded the market cap of the company a couple years ago. The meaning is that even if HP is able to make a profit that the business is so unattractive to hold a long position that investors want to dump their shares (in bulk) - someone will be left holding the stock and nobody wants to be sucked at the end unless you are private equity or something and want to flip the company basically. There's also still potentially cooked books from when HP bought Autonomy, and that's priced in as the bet by how bad it's scope would be. As fate so happened, HP wound up selling a bunch of land it owned in Cupertino to Apple for its new campus indicating it has no plans to expand in that area it used to dominate the industry (most US employees are in low cost of living areas for HP now consistent with companies that are in survival mode moreso than innovation / growth mode).


> You pay someone to take something you own if the asset is a liability

Owning a stock is different from owning a house.

Owning a stock is never a liability. Never would a stock go negative dollars. Even if the management team and the board of directors killed a billion people or robbed an entire nation while killing everyone in that nation, the common stock holder won't go to prison or be sued. The stock will be toilet paper. You can at the worst sell it for $0.

Basic Finance 101.


> Owning a stock is never a liability. Never would a stock go negative dollars.

I agree that the market isn't currently quite saying that core Yahoo is worth < 0, but your logic here is completely incorrect. While of course this is true of an entire share of stock, we're not talking about a literal share of stock being valued at less than zero. Core Yahoo is a subset of what the share represents ownership of, and that subset is what people are claiming is being valued at less than zero.

This is quite clearly possible if the expectation is that the subset will use more resources from the overall entity than it will produce (for a trivial example, if we imagine that the subset is worth X billion and you expect it to spend its entire cash hoard of X+1 billion on unprofitable investments, then the subset has negative value).

It's far from impossible for the market to value core Yahoo at less than zero; it simply means that it thinks that Yahoo is going to die and on the way it's going to net-squander some of the other resources that are contained within a single share of YHOO.

Basic Finance 101.


> It's far from impossible for the market to value core Yahoo at less than zero; it simply means that it thinks that Yahoo is going to die and on the way it's going to net-squander some of the other resources that are contained within a single share of YHOO.

Even if it does it does not make sense to value it at less than zero. Even if the company kills the entire Panda population nobody is going to go after the stockholder. Why are you ignoring taxes?

Repeating an incorrect argument does not make it correct.


I think you're arguing that the financial instrument itself can't be $0 and because of that there's no way for valuation of an entire company to be less than $0. I never argued anything that means that the financial instrument of a stock should be zero or less than zero. I think a company stops being traded entirely if it should fall to zero and enters into bankruptcy to pay off existing creditors. Maybe then stock is converted into something else, I have no recollection of any instrument that represents that owning a stock means you are indebted now.

People do go after the stockholder if the holder was trading on margins and the margin call happens from the broker to recoup their losses. But this scenario is really between a broker and a client, not shareholder v. anyone else relationship.


Stocks cannot meet criteria of a technical definition of a liability asset I believe like you say. But who wants to buy $0 stock as an "investor" if there's basically no way it'll recover? Is it for the same reason that people would buy Zimbabwe currency? Then the value of the stock is in comedy perhaps. People trade penny stocks, granted, but that kind of market behaves really differently from publicly traded companies we talk about usually.

And to be a bit snarky, if the board of directors robbed said nation, they would have some assets now worth something in possession even if they're acquired illegally :) Heck, what would the valuation of the Third Reich be at the end of WWII if it was a corporation?


Having worked at Yahoo a few times ...

The press usually reports senior executives leaving as constituting a "brain drain." But if even the CEO's are worthless, as the last 5 have been, how can the senior executives be expected to have any brains?

The real Yahoo brain drain is the loss of experienced engineers. And since option blocks are no longer offered to engineers, nobody with any experience is going to join.

The only people left are long-time employees with old option grants, recent grads who got rejected from Facebook, and H1B's by the thousands.


Don't forget the acquisitions.


Implying that H1Bs are less talented than american workers. Russia and China say "hi, lol, ignore us at own peril"


That's not what was written. If that's your connotation, that reflects on you, not him/her.

Throwaway_exer listed 3 categories of workers who don't have the same freedom to choose to jump as other workers and said nothing about their comparative talent.


Thank you. I did, in fact, misunderstand.


One quote in particular sticks out for me:

"Others said they were actively looking for their next jobs — a task made more difficult because of the taint of failure that potential employers sometimes associate with anyone at the struggling company."

For those with experience hiring, do you find this to be generally true? Would it really count as a black mark to have worked at a "failing" or "struggling" company, independent of your own experience/skills/accomplishments or would it really depend on the situation/candidate? I realize this isn't a black/white question and is likely more of a gray area.


Not true in my hiring experience.

A good hiring manager is trying earnestly to see how the candidate's skills fit into the job req, and how the personality fits into the team.

The name of the company you worked for last is not really that important. There are talented folks on the market right out of school, from failed startups, and leaving boring or stagnant companies.

I do suppose that experience at some companies, like AWS or Google, is a real bonus.

But you need to be careful of this too. Experience at Google doesn't mean the engineer learned all the best practices and isn't a jerk.


While that isn't true in my hiring experience as well, it's very true that, in general, people will trip over themselves for a chance to anonymously pass negative "honest" judgement on others. Especially if the person passing judgement has a position of prestige or power, i.e. it's a hiring manager in a company that just IPO'd.

Another way of saying this is that any potentially negative detail on a resume will be invariably perceived as negative by someone. Not because it's right but because people are people.


"One Yahoo employee who was interviewed said she was praying to be laid off so she could collect a severance payment and move on with her life."

Would you think this particular employee would be valuable? I think many of the best employees have already left. Good employees will easily find new jobs and won't need the severance payment, I would think.

I think in general Yahoo employees will be less attractive for employers now, compared to perhaps half a year ago.


people have a lot of reasons for staying with a company beyond just not being a 10x developer or a super rockstar ninja or whatever assumptions.

Maybe they have a family or a new house, or both. Maybe they are excellent developers but lack political awareness or marketing skills. Maybe they have more freedom with a certain task than likely elsewhere. Maybe they feel a lot of loyalty.

Its a very unreliable inference to assume they are just somehow less than ideal canidates because they choose to continue with what appears to be a failing company from the outside. Not everyone cares about absolutely maximizing long term career prospects at all stages of their life. That dosent make them bad employees.


You're of course correct, but the point was that the probability distribution is shifted. It's a blunt probabilistic instrument, but it's extremely common in hiring to use such instruments.


I've hired some great former Yahooligans (or whatever they used to call themselves before the grey malaise descended), especially analytics-focused developers. Granted, they all left Yahoo before things got really awful, but just because a company is failing doesn't mean its employees are failures. In fact, I've learned more from failed companies than successful ones; all successful companies are in their key metrics alike, but every failed company fails in its own edifying way.


Not even close for me.

I would no sooner discount someone who worked for Yahoo anymore than I would give high-mark credence to those who work at Google or Facebook.

Trust buy verify.


Trust buy verify

Is this a typo or are you deliberately trying to be profound as this is quite clever.


It's deliberate -- although I don't know about being "profound". :-)

In other words, while I take prior places of employment as signal (just as others do), I tend to discount it heavily. I know smart people working at not-great places, as well as people I would never hire working at some very well-respected companies.

In the end, I'm hiring the person now, not their history.


Actually just re-read this: YES, typo. My bad.

"Trust but verify."


I like the typo more - there are so many ways to parse it :)


It's a Russian proverb[1] made famous by Ronald Reagan during the cold war.

Offtopic: before today, I was unaware of the (alleged) Russian roots of the statement and assumed Reagan coined it.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trust,_but_verify


It depends. If they joined in the last three years, then no. If they have been there for seven or eight years, I have to wonder a bit why they didn't leave yet. If they've been there for ten or more years, I'd have some serious doubts, because all the great people I know who used to work there all left about six to eight years ago and said that only the unemployable stayed behind.

That is of course not entirely true -- I have very talented friends who still work there. But I would be more cautious for sure.


For software engineers? Good taste is really the only skill a software developer needs, and working at a dead-end company like Yahoo reveals a lack of taste. Working at Yahoo would certainly look like a negative to me, more or less depending on the hire date.


I was at AOL years ago when Starboard started a proxy fight with Tim Armstrong. They were "activists", which is to say they were looking for public support to break up and sell the company. Armstrong took them on and brought his own public offensive, explaining why the AOL long-term strategy was better than the short-term breakup that Starboard was touting. Armstrong prevailed in his quest and eventually Starboard bowed out, eventually selling a chunk of their position in the company.

Two years later, AOL was bought by Verizon.

Armstrong was a relatively strong leader in that situation. He was a salesman at heart and knew he needed to reinforce his strategies (however non-plausible those might have been) with the company, the Board, the shareholders and AOL customers.

Mayer looks like none of that to me, and remarkably tone deaf against Starboard. Sorry to those Yahoos still hanging on, but Starboard are simply vultures for distressed companies. Not sure how long it will last, but the chances of an independent Yahoo being open for business in 3 years is really low.


When your average CEO makes 200~300x more money than you, why should you be faithful? When you end up paying for executives screw ups and your salary is the first "cost" to cut of, why should one be faithful to Corporate America?


Why should you be faithful in any situation? The answer's the same: they pay sufficient amounts of money to compensate for the stress and effort.


Define sufficient.


Surely it goes without saying that "sufficient" in that case is defined by each employee?


And confirmed by the fact that they show up to work.


the CEO will not hesitate to fire you if it is in their best business interest. do not believe that being loyal to a company is accompanied equitably.


Faithful? What does that even mean in this context? "Faithful" is for your spouse, not your employer. It's a business arrangement. If it's not working out, you find another job. And your employer knows employee churn is a cost of doing business - they're not expecting you to be "faithful".


The average CEO in America doesn't make 300x more than the average employee. That's nothing more than bad propaganda.

The top several dozen CEOs in the S&P 500 or Fortune 500 are solely responsible for causing that claim, by dramatically swaying the average (and only within the top corporations).

Not only is the median much lower among that group, but the average American CEO only makes single digits times what the average employee does. The average CEO is not running a top 50 corporation, they're running a small business with less than 50 to 100 employees.


In this case it's true. Marissa makes $40 million a year (in 2014) and the average engineer at Yahoo is about $130,000. Yahoo is not one of the top several dozen companies in the Fortune 500 either, it's at #561 and falling.


My own impression of Yahoo from years back is that if something as critical as the YUI toolkit sucked, which it did, then Yahoo had limited prospects.

Perhaps an odd thing to base an opinion on, but compare stock charts on Google versus stock charts on Yahoo. The Yahoo ones were clunky and sucked.

Compare Yahoo Mail with GMail, and Yahoo sucked in comparison, being riddled with giant ad-banners.

Even now, Yahoo search results suck, which is really noticeable when FireFox periodically resets my search engine to Yahoo. Suddenly my results suck, and back to Google I go.

I don't know what Marissa Meyer has been doing, because it doesn't seem to be apparent in Yahoo getting better at anything really.


Well strictly so far as the markets are concerned Yahoo the core company died a long time ago. Just happens that some previous executives made a few great investments (Alibaba) that paid off big. Per current market cap, Yahoo the company has a negative valuation.


What's funny is I just bought Netflix stock solely because I saw how awesome their Falcor toolkit is.


In my small corner of numerical computing, pretty much every name I know on the east coast who doesn't hold a university position has moved to Yahoo Research in recent years. So at least their research lab does not seem to experience a brain drain.


Oh really, what field / subfield are you in? Do they have an east coast research lab or are the people you know moving to the west coast?

They had a huge brain drain of their research lab like 4 years ago after some past company turmoil. Andrei Broder and dozens of other researchers left.

They might be building it up again, but I feel it's unfortunate for those being hired, because research is usually one of the first things to get cut when a company is in financial difficulty. Research is long term, and Yahoo doesn't appear to have a long term plan unfortunately.


Douglas Crockford (author of "Javascript: The Good Parts") shares some thoughts on Yahoo, and what he would do if he were CEO:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HzclYKz4yQ


Thanks for this link! Haven't watched a good Crockford talk in a while.


I wonder if ordering workers back to office had a long term effect on moral? http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/26/technology/yahoo-orders-ho...


Absolutely. If I were working there when this happened I would have started looking.


That was when I knew it wasn't going to work. I personally know several people that I would gladly hire (if given the chance) who quit rather than move.

Not only that, but the people who did have to move are going to resent the company for making them do it. It was really a stealth layoff, and anyone who had prospects elsewhere bailed out at that point.


Why do so many execs rely on cutting jobs indiscriminately? They don't know who the problem workers are.


Because there is a lot of evidence that most employees are essentially fungible, at least at the scale of these large companies.

I've literally been in a meeting where 1 team that was twice as productive as another was cut because that wasn't enough to make up for the fixed cost differential (rent, benefits, regulatory costs etc).


> there is a lot of evidence that most employees are essentially fungible

In software development I don't believe it. This smells like wishful thinking from management for which non-fungible employees are a problem. I'd like to see the evidence you're talking about.


There are many companies that openly hire for middle of the road developers. It's easy to do, just pay middle of the road salaries.

In my experience at these companies, there is sufficient bureaucracy that high performers hit bottlenecks due to the org structure, reducing everyone down to the lowest common denominator anyway. So even an otherwise talented dev can be replaced by a less talented one.


Why not? Software development is a technical work which can be performed by thousands of people on the job market. All it takes to replace someone at such a job is time and HR effort to find a person with required level of experience and reasonable pay requirements.


The problem is that you're assuming productivity is based on individual merit in these companies.

They're so large that essentially nothing about your personal output has any real effect on your individual productivity. It's equal parts politicking, luck, and self-promotion that garners you kudos, not actually getting anything done.

In a dysfunctional organization, like I daresay yahoo is at this point, you don't lose anything by firing people who are unable to contribute due to organizational problems.

As an example, when I worked at AT&T, individual and project success was decided essentially based on the whim of management.

I don't think we went 3 months with the same remit, organization, management structure or goals.

In that kind of situation, much like I perceive Yahoo to be, there's really no point in attempting to achieve productive work since the targets change before you can actually do anything. It's pathologically better to focus on shifting blame and self-aggrandizement, so that when things inevitably fail you can dump it on a scapegoat. There's a reason I don't work there any more.


> there is a lot of evidence that most employees are essentially fungible, at least at the scale of these large companies.

Yeah, all those software engineers corporate America outsourced in the 2000s turned out to be real fungible, right?


Often the lists are built much further down the chain. In cases where they aren't, it's usually purely financially-driven.


> indiscriminately

There is /a lot/ of debt at Yahoo, I think 10% doesn't even begin to cut through the majority of the fat. Unfortunately, most of issues stem from middle management that seem to avoid the layoff cycles.


When I was in high school (2005-ish), Yahoo mails were everywhere, most of my friends used AIM, etc. I haven't used either for long now, but it's sad to see the company dying all the same.


I wonder what all this means for Mozilla, who tied their fate to Yahoo...


How did they tie their fate to Yahoo? I thought allowing Yahoo to buy the default search engine spot in Firefox was as far as the relationship between the two went.


My question is where these Yahoo employees are leaving to (outside of Facebook and Salesforce).


Can someone explain how Yahoo P/E is still high at ~121 ?


Because Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): -98.90%


There's a loss of faith outside the Company, too. I can't imagine anyone becoming an employee of Yahoo today.




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