I don’t go anywhere and my kids don’t leave the street. “Sorry kids you can’t go outside for the next 3 months. I’ll keep the windows clean for you so you can look.” Tantamount to child torture.
Not sure what you mean, I think y'all might be talking past eachother: poster is saying they can't exactly go play outside with the neighbors right now, which is obviously true, if kids in the neighborhood are running around together, we'd just be building really efficient viral transmission chains
This is an assumption of yours for which there's insufficient evidence. Or even the evidence is currently rather pointing the other way. What I have is anecdotal evidence from here in Switzerland - adults generally keep distance while children in the neighborhood generally play with each other. We currently are down to ~120 new cases a day across Switzerland, hospitalization taken a sharp downturn and has never exceeded capacity.
It's all a game of numbers - sure, there will be some transmissions if you let children play together in open spaces, but overall, from what current data suggests, it's not a significant vector. We generally have to think like this now, there's no such thing as absolute safety and we really have to think hard about what should be restricted and what negative effects this will have long term. Isolating kids at home for months is IMO not worth it.
On a different note, neither is allowing small businesses to fail in droves even if they can provide a good hygiene concept. Switzerland has also opened up hairdressers since this week - with masks, hand sanitizing and contact tracing being mandatory for everyone. We'll see in a couple of weeks whether this works or not.
Another anecdote: Where I am in Switzerland, it's rather unusual to see kids playing together right now (except for presumably siblings). I can see a bit of a school playground from my home and the groups that visit have really dwindled over the past few months and it hasn't rebounded yet. There are usually only 1-2 kids playing at a time.
Adults more or less try to maintain distances, as you said.
it's definitely down from normal numbers of kids playing here. but those parents who allow going to playgrounds are usually OK if kids play with some distance. what I found works well is ball passing with soccer - no touch needed. badminton is also reasonable safe distance. with 'neighborhood' I meant the immediate housing project here, we have a couple of boys who are inseparable and I find the risk tolerable if those same kids play together daily. Should be simple to trace also in case the housing gets cases.
Kids are known viral factories. They tend to have higher viral loads despite not getting as sick. This is one reason we have school breaks in the winter and spring, basically to cut down transmission chains.
The crux of the conversation is: either everyone is going to catch this because of how contagious it is, or we all stay home for ~1-1.5 years until a vaccine is widely distributed. There isn't much of a middle ground.
Everyone will catch this. To think otherwise is folly. Our intrepid leaders have had between 4-6 weeks to sort things out. Hope they did.
My kids can go play outside. This is getting absurd.
I don't think any reputable person has claimed an attempt to stop everyone from catching this. The mantra is "flattening the curve." It's been that since the beginning. We don't want to overwhelm the healthcare system like what has happened and is happening in Italy.
And shelter in place with strong social distancing has proven to be the most effective way to slow the spread of the virus given the current testing capacity and lack of contact tracing.
Yes I agree, flatten the curve. Then what? We social distance for a year or two? The world economy goes to hell? Can’t buy a pork chop? All because boomers stuck their parents in nursing homes?
Nah, food processors will need to come up with ways to physically distance with screening or otherwise provide PPE. Those jobs will suck and there won't be any socialization in lunch/break rooms but it will be necessary.
We will learn more during this time about how the virus works and how to treat it as well. Hopefully that knowledge will help us exit faster but we should expect this to be a long term new normal.
Travel and tourism is definitely going to take a bigger and continued hit. But there might be ways to make it work.
To everyone paranoidly sitting is strong isolation I’m saying “What is your exit strategy? The virus is not going away, there will be no vaccine for many months. Are you planning on sitting it out for a year? Two? Ten? If not, you might as well go on with your life while taking reasonable precautions and practicing hygiene.”
I don’t think paranoia means what I think you think it means.
Like most people on the site, I am well adapted to the conditions forced upon us by this pandemic.
What I can’t do is go travelling, what with the airports being closed to tourists, the hotels being closed, and the airlines cancelling any flights other than repatriations, etc. — and I can’t go to local museums, because they’re closed.
I can’t go to a pub to hang out with local furries, because the pub is closed. I probably can’t go to the large furry convention that was going to happen later this year in my city, because the hotel it would be held in is currently being used as a pop-up hospital. Even if I got around the airport problems by learning to fly (I have the money and time for lessons but not for a plane), I couldn’t go to any other cons instead because their hotels have also been converted into pop-up hospitals.
I can go for walks, but I can’t go to any parks, because they’re closed.
I’m also not comfortable with selling my old home in the UK and buying a new one in Berlin — but that’s not because of risk to me, it’s because of the situation in the UK. It’s not really a “hobby”, but it is something I had planned to do and have put off because of this.
I’m not into music or dancing or spectator sports, but those are big parts of most people’s lives — now impossible because their venues are closed.
The only thing I can do is walking (on sidewalks), passive a/v entertainment, MOOCs/etc, and video games.
Suits me, but if it didn’t, there wouldn’t be anything I could do about it.
It's not an either or situation where one size will fit all is it?
If you live in an area that's a hotspot then you need to have tighter restrictions than if not. If you know you're in an at-risk group then you need to have tighter restrictions.
Our restrictions and daily routines are naturally going to have to shift about as the virus ebbs and flows. Which is why a good local testing and contact tracing regime is essential to end the most draconian lockdowns. If you don't even know how the virus is distributed locally and can't quickly act to quarantine people who have been in contact with someone who is infected then it's very hard to say mingling together is a great idea. That said the risks of kids playing together in a neighborhood seem pretty minor if otherwise people are keeping to themselves. The likely negative consequence is that if one family has a member that tests positive then all the others in the neighborhood will need to quarantine until they can be tested or enough time passes. Here that's 14 days if you're not symptomatic or 7 days after the symptoms go if you are. Then the less likely consequence is that you're the vector that passes on the infection and it kills one of your neighbors.
We're relaxing our restrictions here a bit in Iceland on Monday and I'm really interested to see how that goes.
> Everyone will catch this. To think otherwise is folly.
I have my hopes, if not at least until Winter.
Luckily, I have hobbies that are easily done without large groups of people and believe I can avoid groups of 10 or more people for most of summer and probably 50 people until September. (I've not spent more than a few minutes with more than 3 others for the last month and half)
Ah, covid-shaming on HN. Then they go to Costco in unfitted, unfiltering masks and bring home bunch of packages, pretending they avoided “social contact”.
